Are you the same Bruce Barcott that wrote, "The Measure Of A Mountain"? I've read that book about 3 times and loved it. I've been to Mt. Rainier many many times over the years, to the summit, the Wonderland Trail and favorite day hikes like Skyline, Burroughs Mt., Pinnacle Saddle, etc.

Great article! It deserves the widest dissemination possible, to schools, local government officials, and the populations in the Northwest, so that everyone can form their own survival plan. Don't make the mistake of waiting for the "Government!"

Great article! It deserves the widest dissemination possible, to schools, local government officials, and the populations in the Northwest, so that everyone can form their own survival plan. Don't make the mistake of waiting for the "Government!"

Well written! This is reminds me quite a bit of Discovery's "Supervolcano" -- whose opening titles include the line, "This is a true story. It just hasn't happened yet."

Any chance that a full rip nine could trigger activity in one of our many stratovolcanos?

Any chance that a full rip nine could trigger activity in one of our many stratovolcanos?

This article really makes you think about where you live, work, and play and what your chances of survival would be depending on location. Excellent job. Should be required reading for anyone living on the West Coast.

I live on the "Ring of Fire" in Victoria B.C. on Vancouver Island. I have lots of emergency supplies put away, just in case. But I never worry about earthquakes, my biggest problem here is all the dog attacks I have to put up with every day while attempting to go for my daily walk.

Vic- too funny.. Well written, and should be printed and made into teaching materiel at our schools in the NW.

It's just too pretty here. There is no chance to get 50' up in 15 minutes from the beach front. A concrete bunker designed to diffuse the power of the surge and some scuba gear might help in the once in a lifetime emergency?

But what are the odds of the big one hitting on that one day in ten years when the weather is nice enough to get out on the beach like the people in the picture are doing?

Nice article. You are probably pretty close with the number of fatalities, but optimistic about the number of fatalities from the tsunami. Although the number of residents is low, the number of visitors to the coast is 3-8 times the number of residents and they are grouped in the most vulnerable spots. However, for both the earthquake and tsunami it depends on the time of day and the time of year. Glad to see that Pat survived and got a gig from it.

Impacts to Portland, in are likely underestimated. The I-5 bridge over the Columbia will likely go down and landslides in the Columbia River Gorge could bury I-84 under many tons of rock. The Marquam Bridge, if still standing, probably won't be safe to use. Portland would then be isolated from outside help via Interstate highways. Local experts advise being prepared to survive without outside help for up to three weeks. Chances are that even if you are adequately prepared, many of your neighbors won't be.

Impacts to Portland, in are likely underestimated. The I-5 bridge over the Columbia will likely go down and landslides in the Columbia River Gorge could bury I-84 under many tons of rock. The Marquam Bridge, if still standing, probably won't be safe to use. Portland would then be isolated from outside help via Interstate highways. Local experts advise being prepared to survive without outside help for up to three weeks. Chances are that even if you are adequately prepared, many of your neighbors won't be.

What happens to Hawaii in this scenario?

What happens to Hawaii in this scenario?

Interesting article, but a couple of things: The Richter scale is no longer in wide use, and the Alaskan Way Viaduct has significant construction differences from the Nimitz (but no questioning that it is vulnerable in the extreme).

Interesting article, but a couple of things: The Richter scale is no longer in wide use, and the Alaskan Way Viaduct has significant construction differences from the Nimitz (but no questioning that it is vulnerable in the extreme).

Interesting article. I have had disagreements with peole about whether a tsunami would make it to Seattle (I didn't think it would). One small point, however. The tunnel to replace the viaduct has not been started yet, in 2011, whereas the article said it was started in 2008.

Interesting article. I have had disagreements with peole about whether a tsunami would make it to Seattle (I didn't think it would). One small point, however. The tunnel to replace the viaduct has not been started yet, in 2011, whereas the article said it was started in 2008.

Two key points could be added to this article. 1. The geological record shows that every full-out Cascadian failure is accompanied by a north San Andreas fault release... so this scenario should include Marin County and San Francisco as well... and may cascade all the way down to San Diego; 2. side-slip faults poised to release (ie. the So Whidbey, Seattle, etc.) each represent 7+ earthquake potential and local 9-metre tsunamis for Seattle/Tacoma and Victoria... compounding the effects and increasing the variables for destruction.

Great article, but I should comment on two details. 1. All the best statistical seismologists who've looked at it conclude (A) there is no theoretical reason for megaquake clustering to happen, and (B) there is no compelling observational evidence that clustering is happening now. Andy Michael and Peter Shearer have both written about this. The risk estimated by experts of an M9 in Cascadia is about the same now as it was 10 years ago. 2. As you say, we are thinking about installing an earthquake early warning system in Cascadia, but haven't begun to build it. So if your scenario is now, seismologists should be first notified of the earthquake by its shaking, just like the rest of the citizens, unless we happen to be glancing at the seismograms.

Good article. What was not mentioned is the probability in the Seattle area of the Locks failing that connect Puget Sound to Lake Union/Lake Washington. The result would be draining of the lakes by many feet and the collapse of the floating bridges. Attendant water, natural gas, electrical supply lines servicing island communities would be affected and no one could use their moored boats for transportation. As a member of the team teaching Seismic Retrofit to contractors in the NW under Project Impact I am worried far too few people in our area understand how important it is to prepare your structure for the evantuality of a significant quake. I am even more concerned that people have virtually no water or food stored.

Good article. What was not mentioned is the probability in the Seattle area of the Locks failing that connect Puget Sound to Lake Union/Lake Washington. The result would be draining of the lakes by many feet and the collapse of the floating bridges. Attendant water, natural gas, electrical supply lines servicing island communities would be affected and no one could use their moored boats for transportation. As a member of the team teaching Seismic Retrofit to contractors in the NW under Project Impact I am worried far too few people in our area understand how important it is to prepare your structure for the evantuality of a significant quake. I am even more concerned that people have virtually no water or food stored.

"be your own Jesus is blasphemy" may God strike you down.

There have been a few prophecies from Christian prophets about an earthquake. tsunami, volcano eruption combination for Seattle and Portland, this mid-September.

There have been a few prophecies from Christian prophets about an earthquake. tsunami, volcano eruption combination for Seattle and Portland, this mid-September.

I recently had a dream about an earthquake occuring here and I watched as the Deception Pass Bridge fell into the water, as well as the cars that were on it. A tsunami was coming and we were hurrying to escape it. Same day as this dream of an earthquake and tsunami, my daughter was driving north on 99, and as drove around the curve to where the Seattle waterfront comes into view, she told me that "the water was gone". She looked and looked and still the water was gone. After about a minute, she saw the water as it should have been. She called me to tell me of this weird thing that she experienced. I told her that I had just had a dream before awakening of an earthquake and tsunami. Too freaky for me! I haven't been the same since this dream. It's like I know it's coming.

I recently had a dream about an earthquake occuring here and I watched as the Deception Pass Bridge fell into the water, as well as the cars that were on it. A tsunami was coming and we were hurrying to escape it. Same day as this dream of an earthquake and tsunami, my daughter was driving north on 99, and as drove around the curve to where the Seattle waterfront comes into view, she told me that "the water was gone". She looked and looked and still the water was gone. After about a minute, she saw the water as it should have been. She called me to tell me of this weird thing that she experienced. I told her that I had just had a dream before awakening of an earthquake and tsunami. Too freaky for me! I haven't been the same since this dream. It's like I know it's coming.

When you say the coast will sink five feet, what does that mean for places more inland, such as Seattle or Portland (or Port Townsend)? Do they also sink five feet, or will they sink considerably less?

Started reading this sipping on my morning coffee. By the last page was looking for a shot of something stronger to put in it. Nice cautionary tale Dude!

Started reading this sipping on my morning coffee. By the last page was looking for a shot of something stronger to put in it. Nice cautionary tale Dude!

I live on Vashon Island and we have groups planning for this. There also is a book called When All Hell Breaks Loose for afterward . I have heard the ferries will be running north and south in the sound for emergency deliveries of basic goods . Oh joy !

I live on Vashon Island and we have groups planning for this. There also is a book called When All Hell Breaks Loose for afterward . I have heard the ferries will be running north and south in the sound for emergency deliveries of basic goods . Oh joy !

choice work! keep up the chatter maybe people will get prepared. Any comments on if the Bonneville Dam will cause a tsunami from the east? Also, the Portland I-5 bridge MIGHT stand, but the on/off ramps won't. And today I heard a new fault on the north side of Mt Hood might very well be effected (G'bye Odell)

I wonder about the Long Beach Peninsula and Warrenton, OR where my elderly mother resides... who will be absolutely unable to escape... her home is by the Warrenton grade school.... 1/2 mile from the beach??? Its a wake up call....and no doubts something that may or may not happen in the next days, weeks, months or years.... but WILL happen .... If I could get my mother and her husband to move, I would ... but to where? I just hope that people wake up enough to figure it out... IT WILL HAPPEN!! when? probably sooner rather than later.... W A K E * U P * C A L L folks.... so W A K E * U P!!!

I'm on Whidbey Island does that mean I'm screwed? Very well written. It was like reading an exciting story. Only it's a story of what's to come. How terrifying.

The article's good. But the "how it will happen" section is riveting. Some of the best disaster description I've read.

good article, I worry about my niece and her husband and the kids in Portland. They are transplants from the Midwest. I've discussed this and general EQ preparedness, but alas...I think it falls on deaf ears.

Check out the book SUDDEN LOSS. This is by a former scientist who knows Whidbey very well, believe he's a local. It details very thoroughly the probable scenarios for Whidbey and vicinity in the event the Cascadia goes. First and foremost, the Deception Pass bridge collapses, laden with rush hour cars. Its a frightening but well researched book; in the end the author's intention of helping people "be prepared, not scared" shines through.

When the Japan earthquake/tsunami hit, was my first clue about subduction zones. I am new to the Porland area, via Texas. There's warnings for hurricanes but for earthquakes I understand, no such luck. I am very thankful for this article because my "disaster preparation kit" needs some updating. Very well written. I know I'm psyched and will do some more research on how to protect myself and my loved ones. Many thanks for the realistic portrayal of what in all likelihood, would happen, when the big one strikes me. I will remember this advice. Thanks again.

When the Japan earthquake/tsunami hit, was my first clue about subduction zones. I am new to the Porland area, via Texas. There's warnings for hurricanes but for earthquakes I understand, no such luck. I am very thankful for this article because my "disaster preparation kit" needs some updating. Very well written. I know I'm psyched and will do some more research on how to protect myself and my loved ones. Many thanks for the realistic portrayal of what in all likelihood, would happen, when the big one strikes me. I will remember this advice. Thanks again.

A good piece, but unfortunate in that the otherwise uninformed reader might conclude that the Northern California coast has little to worry about, as it isn't addressed at all in the scenario. In reality, the tens of thousands of us who live here on the Humboldt and Del Norte county coasts are in greater jeopardy than the Oregon and Washington coasts, for at least two reasons: 1) those breakfast sausage quakes, the 8+ ones - they happen on the southern end of the CSZ, next to NoCal, so whether or not Portland and Seattle get it, we do; 2) we're much closer to the break zone, so we'll get 5 or 10 minutes, not 15 or 30, before the tsunami hits. The good news is there is some real preparation being done. The bad is that it will never be enough.

to close to reality for me, as i live in Humboldt county. we have had many many small quakes lately. a bit unnerving especially since Alaska recently had a large quake. 15 min is a short amount of time...best know where your keys are.

I liked the article. Since 1998 a core of volunteers and building professionals have been keeping Seattle's Project Impact home retrofit program going. It was started with a FEMA grant to promote disaster mitigation. The City of Seattle building department offers free pre-engineered plans to retrofit homes against earthquake damage, by bolting homes to there foundations. As a necessary addition, a core of building professionals offer contractor training at least yearly, through WABO. And for the DIY or those who wish to become informed consumers, a core of volunteers, at least once a month, offers free 2 hour classes, sponsored by the Seattle Public Library branches through out the city. Similar programs exist in the San Francisco Bay Area. The free plans were copied from San Leandro, CA. and modified to fit Seattle's housing stock. FEMA did a good thing with this and it shows one path for making positive change. Here 200,000 house built before 1980 need work. There is plenty to do.

The most amazing thing happens when our Mother Earth begins to really move, be it inside rock, within the air, or even from the cosmos beyond. It leaves evidence. It tells a story. It's great that we're beginning to listen. Great article, and fantastic people working hard to enlighten others. The evidence tells a geological story that we'd be wise to heed. Communities within this zone should begin regularly scheduled emergency evacuation drills, as well as develop relocated emergency/civic/management headquarters at higher elevations. These plans should include mandatory and immediate relocation of schools, hospitals, or any other vital services, including hazardous material storage facilities, away from affected areas. Fifty feet up, it's not rocket science, just good old fashioned paying attention to the geological facts. You just have to know how to listen. I believe the people of that region do.

Fine article. You are obviously a fan of Reisner's A Dangerous Place, as am I, who live in the area it covered, Marin County. Reisner's widow finished the book after his death. And she is still living in a dangerous place, San Anselmo, which built its business section in a creek bed. I guess we have to accept some risks in life! But I am pretty much prepared.

Great research on the article. This article I will keep on the front of my website. Keep up the great Work!!

Great research on the article. This article I will keep on the front of my website. Keep up the great Work!!

thanks for this article!! i'm searching everywhere for the best way to respond to a quake in a hi-rise steel and glass building-- stay away from windows, i get that, but the structures are mostly drywall with little or no internal frame-- can you point me in a direction that would have some information on what to do during the 5 minutes of shaking in a building like that? my office building is right on the Hayward fault, which is gonna blow any time now...

The big one will hit some where in the world,causing massive destruction and death. The pacific north west is a likely Canadit for such a disaster but another disaster is headed towered the west coast and that's 100,000 tons of debree from japans earthquake. Either way,we are headed for disaster,Question is when?

So will Tx. Be affected if ca. Has a mega quake ...yes or no.

Will the state of Tx. Ever have a mega quake??? Yes or No.

The filing of patents with knowledge gleamed from forbidden fruit is the invention of earthquakes I AM Jesus Christ. LET TRUMPET SOUND FOR ST. LOUIS AND WEST COAST and you will know I am the lord... Faster-Than-Light Patent earthquake 0,334,823 - Commutator for Dynamo Electric Machines - 1886 January 26 - Elements to prevent sparking on dynamo-electric machines; Drum-style with brushes. Faster-Than-Light Patent earthquake 0,350,954 - Regulator for Dynamo Electric Machines - 1886 October 19 - Automatic regulation of energy levels; Mechanical device to shift brushes. Faster-Than-Light Patent earthquake 0,335,786 - Electric Arc lamp - 1886 February 9 - Arc lamp with carbon electrodes controlled by electromagnets or solenoids and a clutch mechanism; Corrects earlier design flaws common to the industry. Faster-Than-Light Patent earthquake 0,335,787 - Electric arc lamp - 1886 February 9 - Arc lamp's automatic fail switch when arc possesses abnormal behavior; Automatic reactivation. Faster-Than-Light Patent earthquake 0,336,961 - Regulator for dynamo electric machines - 1886 March 2 - Two main brushes connected to helices coil ends; Intermediate point branch shunt connection for third brush. Faster-Than-Light Patent earthquake 0,336,962 - Regulator for Dynamo Electric Machines - 1886 March 2 - Auxiliary brush[es] shunting a portion or whole of the field helices coil; Regulates energy flow; Adjustable level of current. Faster-Than-Light Patent earthquake 0,359,748 - Dynamo electric machine - 1887 March 22 - Improve construction; Facilitate easier construction; Reduce the cost; Magnetic frame; Armature; Alternating current synchronous motor.

No mention of area volcano activity. How far inland will volcano activity be noted, Mammoth?